THE DAILY FORK FULL
The Asian markets are ahead of the US so FXI, the US ETF for large-cap Chinese stocks, was able to respond Friday to the big drop in China. The reaction was mild with price gapping down only 2.1% on the open and dropping another 33 cents during the day.
Regardless of the hot air being blown by the Fed, interest rates are rising. While they like to pretend that they are in charge, the markets are raising rates now and not waiting "until September" like the Fed is saying.
This large-cap energy stock is considered relatively safe as stocks go, and with a yield of 3.4% it throws off a respectable amount of income. We will have to see if investors continue to hold the stock at $70 or if we see a large capitulation as they puke their shares into the market.
NASDAQ briefly touched 5132.52 in March of 2000 and then backed off before the close. Today price reached 5143.32 before backing off. The close today at 5132.95 was still above the prior high.
Dr. Copper doesn't care how much fiat currency gets printed or how many quantitative easings occur, he is only interested in the real economy where people are either building things or they aren't.
The blue modified-Schiff fork has identified support and resistance levels throughout oil's decline from $100+ down to sub-$50 and it continues to mark the upper end of oil's current price range
We will find out pretty quickly what the Transports are going to do next. Price is right at the upper median line of the Andrews pitchfork and this is a proven resistance level.
The only thing holding the US economy together at this point (besides spit and bubble-gum) is low interest rates. The strong rise in TNX is definitely a cause for concern.
The Dollar is demonstrating a great deal of strength and we should be very cautious about assuming that it is rolling over at this point.
The Fed keeps saying they will raise rates eventually but rates appear to be rising without the Fed's intervention.
This particular doji occurred on the third day that price was pushing against resistance at the median line of the pink Andrews pitchfork. Having the doji at an obvious resistance level suggests topping and not just hesitation.
Instead of spending more time questioning the social media phenomena, let's focus on the stocks of the four biggest companies in the sector and see what the market thinks. After all, from our perspective as traders and investors, the market is where the rubber meets the road.
Gold is up about $35 in the last few days. Price has risen to the 50 day exponential moving average and is now pulling back a little to consolidate the fairly substantial rise.
Bull rallies don't end all at once, they end one stock at a time. Seeing signs of topping in a major stock like AAPL contributes to the idea that the current bull is getting tired of running.
As we know from the 5 rules for using Andrews pitchforks, price is always targeting the next median line. If NASDAQ can break above current resistance we will have a target of about 6100.
We have to take into account the incessant money-pumping of the central banks. Yellen recently threatened negative interest rates for the US. Such a move would likely cause a significant move into equities as money searched for yield in a NIRP environment. As always, in the current financial world, your guess is as good as mine ...
Gold was looking good until Wednesday. I'm sure it's just a coincidence that the paper price of Gold always drops significantly on the day of an FOMC meeting / announcement.
This chart is meant to emphasize the failed triple-bottom zone where, IMO, a significant amount of resistance can be expected. After a multi-year downtrend many people were expecting the $1180'ish level to be the bottom.
Along with the 61.8% retracement level we are coming up on resistance at the breakdown level. This will be the first test of this area and we will be able to judge the strength of the current rally by how price behaves here.
It is certainly possible that price will push higher again before heading lower. After all there are lots of people and institutions with a vested interest in seeing higher prices. When money comes from a printing press anything is possible.
As I was looking at this chart this morning a Clint Eastwood quote came to mind: "Do you feel lucky punk?"
Based on the rules for using Andrews pitchforks TNX is targeting the red ellipse at about 1.82%. This TNX target will probably be reached when equities head lower after the current rally runs out of energy.
It's possible that price has already reached its reversal point at the 38.2% extension level since support was found there on both Thursday and Friday. If this support fails our next target is the 61.8% extension and a revisit of the August 24 low. If we are going to see a "revisit the low and dip below" scenario, there are several possible support levels between 1740 and 1850. A test of any of these levels could lead to a strong year-end rally.
The Fed's threat to raise rates was BS yet again. Face it folks, they will never raise rates or normalize monetary policy. Their only tools at this point are blarney and printing press money.
The triangle can be either a continuation or reversal pattern. By measuring the width of the pattern at its widest point we get a price target by adding that width to the breakout point. In this case we get a downside target at the 1812-1820 area and an upside target around 2090.
The doji on Thursday (9/03) is even more bearish than the preceding one and it is suggesting that the market could be rolling over now for the next big leg down. Another 83 point decline would take the SPX to 1864 and a revisit of the "B" point while another 653 point decline in the Dow would take us to 15,718.
The decline was impulsive meaning it occurred without pausing to consolidate or retrace at any point. The impulsive nature of this move and the fact that it violated 4 prior lows sets up a very high probability A-B-C-D move where we can apply the Fibonacci extension tool.
Price rarely makes a 3 standard deviation (sd) move much less a move greater than that. Since the bottom in 2009 there has only been 3 times when price penetrated the 3 sd Bollinger Band (BB). Notice that in 2011 and 2014 the penetrations were spike bottoms where only the wick of the candlestick poked outside the lower BB. In contrast, the candlestick body for last week penetrated the BB with price closing on its low instead of bouncing.
The mining stocks are looking better this week. Price turned up bullishly along with the strength in the metals. After the strong move up Monday through Wednesday HUI is pulling back to test its breakout level and support along the median line of the modified-Schiff pitchfork.
While printing press money and financial machinations can inflate an economy for some period of time, the real economy involves actual products that are manufactured by a supplier and purchased by an end user. Copper is a key component of many of these products so economic analysts consider Copper to be the best indicator of economic health.
I believe we have seen capitulation in the mining sector. I will be looking at two possibilities for adding to my portfolio. The most conservative strategy is adding shares of the dividend paying miners (e.g., GORO 5.3%, GG is paying 4.5%). A more aggressive strategy is buying LEAPS on some of the best silver miners.
It is my opinion that we are still several weeks or months away from seeing a bottom in the precious metals sector. What we really need to see at this point is a serious capitulation where all the weak hands puke their positions into the market.
It's been an interesting week in the financial world. China's equity markets are crashing despite desperate attempts to put a floor under prices. Extreme measures finally caused a bounce in prices. Germany is suggesting that Greece takes a five year vacation from the Euro.